Grand National Result

The big race has been run and it's a case of close but no cigar. My 5 short-listed (see post below) all finished, so that's something.

• Niche Market 5th
• Midnight Club 6th
• Big Fella Thanks 7th
• Backstage 10th
• Silver by Nature 12th

Unfortunately I didn't bet with VC so only got 5 places. Had I got the same prices with 6 places I'd have made a small (read 'tiny') profit instead of a small loss. I couldn't have has the first 2 home because while they hit most of the race trends they didn't have the form in class 1 races. The winner had been running in class 2 chases and novice hurdles. The runner-up had been beaten by other horses in the race when he ventured into class 1 races (notably The Midnight Club and Bluesea Cracker). It seems the better ground allowed him to reverse the form with those horses.

Well done to all who backed the winner.

Grand National 2011 - my thoughts

One of the things that comes up at Grand National time is "trends" in the race. Following certain trends to narrow down the field of 40 runners has paid dividends in recent years - not just for the winners but most of the places too. It should be obvious that to win the Grand National a horse should be of good quality, have stamina and jump well. It amazes me how people throw their money away on horses unproven at even 3 miles in a 4 and a half mile race. Horses aged 9 and 10 usually do best in the race, I guess they have the necessary experience without being over the hill (not that I'm saying all horses suddenly become useless when they turn 11 you understand). It helps if a horse has won at the least a Listed quality race.

The Short-list
Big Fella Thanks - I can see why this horse isn't the most fancied; its form in general does not look the strongest. It does tick all the boxes though. What's more it has done well in the race previously - 6th as a 7yo and 4th as an 8yo suggests to me it has a strong chance of being placed in the race again now that it has entered what should be its Grand National prime as a 9yo.

Niche Market - Not a confident selection by any means. The horse hasn't won for 2 years and was pulled up when out of contention last year. Never the less, whatever way you slice it this horse fits the race trends and is worth a punt at a decent price.

The Midnight Club - Winner of the Bobbyjo in Ireland, a key trial for the National, several in the field were behind it that day. I've watched the race and what is so impressive is not that the horse wins the race, but by how comfortable it is throughout. The jockey that day did his best Ruby Walsh impression as he calmly eased to victory. I know it was just a prep-run for some of the others, but I see it being difficult for any of them to reverse the form. The price suggests I wasn't the only person impressed.

Silver by Nature - I can't really recommend this one as it loves soft and heavy ground. Unless there's a deluge headed to Liverpool that the Met Office don't know about. A real shame because the trainer has had 4 winners from 8 runners in the first week of April.

Backstage - This one is just irritating me immensely. Not seen on the track since last summer, its recent form under rules is poor. I don't know if it has been winning PTP races because it can't or won't perform at the track or if it's the work of shrewd connections protecting a handicap mark. It was going well last year when a loose horse ended its chances and seems worthy of mention.

Feel free to mock me when all the mentioned horses fall at the first/last. Alternatively you could tell me where your pin has landed on the racecard in the comments section.

Fantasy Baseball UK starting roster 2011

After hours of combing though stats, reports and the FBUK player database, I have put together my starting line-up for the 2011 season. If it's anything like last year, this starting team will bear little resemblance to the roster that ends the season in six months.

12k (or rather 12 million, but the values are all in thousands so it might as well be 12k) for 9 hitters/position players, 5 starting pitchers and 1 relief pitcher/closer. Any leftover funds can be spent on up to 4 hitters and 1 reliever of bench players.

SouthSideSluggers, White Sox Division
Catcher: Buster Posey 692 SF I decided to spend the money on a catcher who can hit well, instead of writing it off as a low scoring position and getting a cheap first choice catcher.
1B Justin Morneau 659 MIN Morneau missed much of last season through injury. This makes him a risk, but it also makes him cheap. I decided getting a 1k+ star player for 659 was worth the gamble.
2B Kelly Johnson 874 ARI This is probably a mistake. I missed the Kelly Johnson bandwagon last season, and didn't want to pay the premium for Robinson Cano.
3B Adrian Beltre 876 TEX Like Johnson above, this was not a confident selection, but I simply didn't much like what I could get in this position for less. I probably should have chosen Kevin Youkilis (850 BOS).
SS Jose Reyes 680 NYM Not wanting to spend top dollar on Hanley Ramirez or Troy Tulowitzki (whom I had last season) I took a punt on Reyes. The report on his spring training seemed positive and he is expected to leave the Mets as they don't want to (or can't) pay his wages next year. Players often do well when they are in the shop window.
OF1 Mike Stanton 384 FLA By the time I got to the outfield I needed a bargain. Stanton hit 22 HR in 359 AB last season. I'd love for his batting average and on-base % to increase, but if he hits 25+ homers I'll be happy.
OF2 Adam Jones 958 BAL This time next month I'll probably feel like I've paid too much for Jones. He has some power, and a little speed and seems to score runs and hit RBIs adequately. I probably should have picked Nelson Cruz (918 TEX).
OF3 Ryan Braun 1275 MIL My penultimate pick (I picked the pitchers first) I had 2k left to spend, so I decided to splash out on a bona fide star. I just hope he hits more HR than last season.
DH Jacoby Ellsbury 713 BOS I read that he might hit lead off for the Red Sox this season. If he does (and can stay healthy), that 713 is going to look like a steal.
SP Felix Hernandez 1099 SEA Coming off an incredible season - 2.27 ERA, 232K, 1.06 WHIP - 'King' Felix is the cornerstone in my plan to drive myself into an early grave, as his team refuse to give him some decent run support (again).
SP Josh Johnson 969 FLA See above comment. (2.30, 186, 1.11)
SP C.C. Sabathia 1049 NYY Look at this guy's recent seasons. If I didn't pick him I'd surely regret it.
SP Chris Carpenter 1001 STL I thought he should have won the Cy Young in '09 when he got less run support than Lincecum (no, really!) but still won 17 games and had a WHIP of 1.01.
SP Jeremy Hellickson 260 TB Inexperienced pitcher in the toughest division in the majors, but he costs 260! It was basically him or Chris Young of the Mets, and he's coming back from injury and plays for the Mets.
RP Matt Thornton, 446 CWS I've been really impressed by Matt Thornton's pitching and thought they should have made him the closer last season if they could have gotten someone to take Jenks off their hands. Sale will be keeping the pressure on in the bullpen.

Power Slave

I've been having computer problems, namely that if I try to do anything more demanding than lightly browsing the interwebs my PSU gives up and cuts out. I expected these problems to become a thing of the past on this, the last day of 2010. Unfortunately this is New Year's Eve - when nothing ever goes right. The replacement has arrived, but after the time consuming process of swapping the PSUs over the system won't power up at all! Cue a reversal of the previous process whereby I put a PSU I know to be a pile of crap into my computer. It's fair to say I'm not impressed. I saw one on special offer on Christmas Day which would have been a good buy too.

Still, I can now expect a second attempt at a replacement sometime this weekend, so fingers crossed.

Recommended Biographies

On her "Heartline" webcast answering fans' questions, Melissa Auf der Maur (@xmadmx on Twitter) mentioned that when it comes to books she favours non-fiction and in particular biographies and autobiographies. Being rather fond of these myself, I thought I could stick up a blog post mentioning a few of the excellent examples I've read in recent years.

1. For Richer For Poorer: A Love Affair with Poker - Victoria Coren
Victoria Coren's poker autobiography documents her development from being a teenager playing the game so that she could spend time with her brother's male friends, to being a European champion. Written with all the wit and charm we've come to expect from Miss Coren, this book should be enjoyable to poker fans and non-fans alike. Never a manual on the game, this is a story packed with characters - as one might expect in the world of high stakes gambling.

2. The Kindness of Strangers - Kate Adie
Best known as a war correspondent for the BBC, Kate Adie's autobiography tells a global story including conflicts in the Balkans and the Middle East. The book also recounts her days as a student when she spent time in Berlin (on both sides of the wall), the early days of BBC local radio (Radio Durham in particular) and her eye witness account of the Tiananmen Square massacre of 1989. I would urge people not to be put off by the sometimes very unpleasant subject matter. Adie's is a fine voice that resonates throughout a book filled with humour and insight.

3. Arafat: The Biography - Andrew Gowers and Tony Walker
Being interested in current affairs and politics (and what have you), I snapped this up when I saw a cheap (damaged) copy in a local discount book store. Inevitably this is a brief history of the Israel/Palestine conflict in the 20th century as well as a biography of a man at the centre of that conflict for decades. I'm no expert on the subject matter, but it appears to be meticulously researched, and manages to be even handed on an emotive subject. Recounting a brief foray into international terrorism (and the repercussions), Arafat's difficult relationships with the national leaders of the countries around Israel and the internal politics of the Palestinian movement this book is as gripping as it is informative.

4. Speaking for England - David Faber
A biography of Leo Amery and his sons Julian and John, this is the story of a family steeped in and damaged by politics. I first came across Leo and Julian Amery via their biography of another Conservative minister - Joseph Chamberlain. Leo lies at the heart of the text, but the the contrasting fortunes of his sons is key to this tragic tale. Julian risked life and limb working for SOE in the second world war, while his troubled brother John fell in with the Nazis and wanted to fight the Communist Russians. The former became a government minister, the latter was hanged for treason. Well worth reading.

It's late so I'll leave it at that for now, more may follow soon.

Jinx, moi?

I seem to have become an effective jinx for the Dallas Cowboys this season. Previously when they appeared on Sunday Night Football, the Cowboys were unbelievably bad throughout and got suitably trounced. Last night's game seemed close until I started watching it.

When I checked the score online it was 7-7. I didn't start to actually watch the game until the 4th quarter. As soon as I sat down to watch (20-20 at the time) the Eagles scored a touchdown from a play starting on their own 9 yard line. Then immediately following the kick-off, Dallas' QB threw an interception.

Obviously I put this all down to my power to jinx the Cowboys simply by watching them on TV from thousands of miles away. It couldn't possibly be simple coincidence or the Cowboys (4-9 on the season) simply being a bad team.

This Week: Let's abolish prosperity

Oh my, Josie Long made a guest appearance on the BBC current affairs show "This Week" and it wasn't pretty. Along with the anarchist morons and 'student' protesters, (many of whom turn out not to be students at all but like the idea of smashing stuff up on the condition that other people pay for the damage,) Ms Long is off in fantasy land. In fantasy land the government has a bottomless pit of money to spend generously on everything. In fantasy land universities get more money but none of it has to come from the people being educated. "That sounds nice" I hear you all cry out with great anticipation. Unfortunately, even in fantasy land this means more tax. Apparently the government doesn't take enough money off people as it is. How many of the people welcoming the subsidisation of fees in Wales realise this mean that the funding for welsh universities will be lower than their counterparts in the rest of England?

Total UK government spending in 2009 was £631 billion, i.e. 631,000,000,000 or about £10,000 for each and every man, woman and child in the country. Spending is expected to increase every year for the foreseeable future.

When Labour introduced tuition fees and then trebled them Josie Long thought "I don't agree with that, but nevermind" whereas a Conservative-led government plans to increase fees by about 2.5x and it's the end of the world as we know it. Misguided, blinkered tribalism of this nature is so very disappointing and frankly rather stupid. I even found myself agreeing with Ed Balls about something this week. I can't remember what it was off the top of my head, but the point is that opposing/supporting everything because of who it comes from is daft, but all too widespread.

Supposedly if we impose punitive taxes on all rich people everything will be alright. Tax havens are the cause of all fiscal problems, if these leftists are to be believed. Do these people never ask themselves why people move to tax havens in the first place? The highest current income tax rate is 50%. That's just income tax too, before we go into VAT, duties and other taxes. Is it really so very hard to understand that when people earn money they don't wish to send the majority of that money to the tax-man to be frittered away on all sorts of rubbish?

Maybe, just maybe, if our taxes weren't so god damn high wealthy people would stay here and contribute. I don't see how 50% of nothing is better than a smaller amount of something. One popular hate figure for these people at the moment is Philip Green. I'd love for Mr. Green to pay taxes in this country too, but considering that his company employs thousands of people I don't see that it's entirely beneficial to attack his high street stores. I wonder if anyone has ever asked tax exiles how low the tax rate would have to be for them to stay (or rather 'return', I suppose).

If anyone made it this far, I commend your dedication, and I apologise. I really didn't intend to write so much when I started, but one thing tends to lead to another. I don't really like the idea of £9k per year fees and I really don't know if I'd have gone to university myself at that price. Then again, I had to pay my fees at the time, not afterwards. Either way, spouting long discredited socialist claptrap doesn't help anyone.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00wf757/This_Week_02_12_2010/