Grand National 2011 - my thoughts
One of the things that comes up at Grand National time is "trends" in the race. Following certain trends to narrow down the field of 40 runners has paid dividends in recent years - not just for the winners but most of the places too. It should be obvious that to win the Grand National a horse should be of good quality, have stamina and jump well. It amazes me how people throw their money away on horses unproven at even 3 miles in a 4 and a half mile race. Horses aged 9 and 10 usually do best in the race, I guess they have the necessary experience without being over the hill (not that I'm saying all horses suddenly become useless when they turn 11 you understand). It helps if a horse has won at the least a Listed quality race.
The Short-list
Big Fella Thanks - I can see why this horse isn't the most fancied; its form in general does not look the strongest. It does tick all the boxes though. What's more it has done well in the race previously - 6th as a 7yo and 4th as an 8yo suggests to me it has a strong chance of being placed in the race again now that it has entered what should be its Grand National prime as a 9yo.
Niche Market - Not a confident selection by any means. The horse hasn't won for 2 years and was pulled up when out of contention last year. Never the less, whatever way you slice it this horse fits the race trends and is worth a punt at a decent price.
The Midnight Club - Winner of the Bobbyjo in Ireland, a key trial for the National, several in the field were behind it that day. I've watched the race and what is so impressive is not that the horse wins the race, but by how comfortable it is throughout. The jockey that day did his best Ruby Walsh impression as he calmly eased to victory. I know it was just a prep-run for some of the others, but I see it being difficult for any of them to reverse the form. The price suggests I wasn't the only person impressed.
Silver by Nature - I can't really recommend this one as it loves soft and heavy ground. Unless there's a deluge headed to Liverpool that the Met Office don't know about. A real shame because the trainer has had 4 winners from 8 runners in the first week of April.
Backstage - This one is just irritating me immensely. Not seen on the track since last summer, its recent form under rules is poor. I don't know if it has been winning PTP races because it can't or won't perform at the track or if it's the work of shrewd connections protecting a handicap mark. It was going well last year when a loose horse ended its chances and seems worthy of mention.
Feel free to mock me when all the mentioned horses fall at the first/last. Alternatively you could tell me where your pin has landed on the racecard in the comments section.
The Short-list
Big Fella Thanks - I can see why this horse isn't the most fancied; its form in general does not look the strongest. It does tick all the boxes though. What's more it has done well in the race previously - 6th as a 7yo and 4th as an 8yo suggests to me it has a strong chance of being placed in the race again now that it has entered what should be its Grand National prime as a 9yo.
Niche Market - Not a confident selection by any means. The horse hasn't won for 2 years and was pulled up when out of contention last year. Never the less, whatever way you slice it this horse fits the race trends and is worth a punt at a decent price.
The Midnight Club - Winner of the Bobbyjo in Ireland, a key trial for the National, several in the field were behind it that day. I've watched the race and what is so impressive is not that the horse wins the race, but by how comfortable it is throughout. The jockey that day did his best Ruby Walsh impression as he calmly eased to victory. I know it was just a prep-run for some of the others, but I see it being difficult for any of them to reverse the form. The price suggests I wasn't the only person impressed.
Silver by Nature - I can't really recommend this one as it loves soft and heavy ground. Unless there's a deluge headed to Liverpool that the Met Office don't know about. A real shame because the trainer has had 4 winners from 8 runners in the first week of April.
Backstage - This one is just irritating me immensely. Not seen on the track since last summer, its recent form under rules is poor. I don't know if it has been winning PTP races because it can't or won't perform at the track or if it's the work of shrewd connections protecting a handicap mark. It was going well last year when a loose horse ended its chances and seems worthy of mention.
Feel free to mock me when all the mentioned horses fall at the first/last. Alternatively you could tell me where your pin has landed on the racecard in the comments section.
Labels: Grand National, horse racing, racing
posted by Bill Green at 16:14
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